New Nextier poll predicts Obi presidency with Lagos, Ogun Oyo joining Labour’s bag

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New Nextier, an Africa-focused consulting firm, predicted that Peter Obi of the Labour Party has strong chance of winning the February 25 presidential election after he scored 37 per cent ahead of other candidates in a recently conducted voter survey.


Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) scored 27 per cent, Bola Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) scored 24 per cent and Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria People’s Party had six per cent in the survey that displayed only party logos and names.

The questionnaire did not include the names and pictures of the candidates.

Labour Party gained more popularity in the South-West as the majority of the survey participants in Lagos (39.4 percent), Ogun (36.3 per cent) and Oyo (39.4 per cent) pledged their support for Mr Obi.

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In Ondo, 47.6 per cent of those surveyed were behind Mr Tinubu and 45.6 per cent in Osun were for Mr Atiku.

Using sample size of 3,000 respondents with age and gender demographics across the 36 states and Abuja, New Nextier said it generated a margin of error of two per cent at a 95 percent confidence interval.

The consulting firm, however, noted that the coast to Labour Party’s victory was not entirely clear because none of the candidates met its two criteria for “a majority of votes cast and 25 percent in two-thirds of the states,” both ingredients for a landslide victory in the first round.

The survey projected that the Labour Party could score 25 per cent in 23 states but was not confident it could poll a majority of total votes cast.

The firm stressed that the presidential election would be “a runoff between Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar or Bola Tinubu.”

It further stated that 72 per cent of the survey respondents were registered voters and 83 per cent of them were adamant about their choices, saying that nothing would change their minds about their preferred candidates.

The firm stressed that voter turnout could be suppressed by insecurity and other factors like “concerns about the freedom and fairness of the election, and concerns about the impartiality of Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).”

In the survey, 52 per cent of the respondents said they believed thag the presidential poll would be free and fair and 47 per cent felt that INEC could manipulate the results to favour some candidates.

“It is exciting to see Nigerians take their civic responsibilities seriously,” asserted Nextier Founding Partner, Patrick O. Okigbo III. “Although the Labour Party secured the highest voter preference, Nigeria’s 2023 presidential elections will likely go into a second-round runoff with Peter Obi and one of either Atiku Abubakar or Bola Tinubu.”

The survey results were released on February 5.

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