Nigeria at 66: From Hope at Independence to a Nation in Deepening Crisis

In 1960, anyone facing prosecution for embezzlement of public funds would hardly have been considered suitable for nomination by a political party for another election. Today, allegations of criminality surround some aspirants seeking the highest political offices, including accusations involving certificate forgery, terrorism financing and drug trafficking.

Similarly, no university graduate in the early years of independence would have regarded crime as a preferred career. Today, thousands of young Nigerians are reportedly joining cybercrime syndicates to finance extravagant lifestyles. The contrast is difficult to ignore when former governors accused of serious offences continue to serve as senators or seek higher political office, often without any apparent political consequence.

Nigeria’s founding leaders — Ahmadu Bello, Nnamdi Azikiwe and Obafemi Awolowo — would scarcely recognise the country that emerged from the political traditions they helped establish. Across food production, education, healthcare, roads, infrastructure and governance, the country faces challenges that raise questions about its progress compared with 1960.

FOOD FIRST

“There are people in the world, so hungry, that God cannot appear to them except in form of bread.”

Mahatma Gandhi made the observation before his assassination in 1948, at a time when India was experiencing severe food shortages. The situation provides a useful comparison with Nigeria’s present food crisis.

In 1948, I was only four years old, so understanding the food situation of that period requires reference to historical records and accounts from people who lived through it. Those accounts indicate that Nigeria was then a net exporter of food, despite the fact that almost 99 per cent of Nigerians were illiterate and the University of Ibadan was only opening its doors to students.

At the time, the number of university graduates in the entire country was fewer than 1,000. Today, the University of Ibadan alone graduates more than 5,000 students annually, while Nigerian universities collectively send more than 120,000 graduates into the labour market.

The question therefore arises: what is the value of our celebrated “educated manpower” if the country cannot adequately feed itself?

In 1960, Nigeria was the world’s largest exporter of vegetable oil, the third-largest exporter of cocoa and imported no rice. Today, the country is a net importer of vegetable oil and rice, while its position in the global cocoa market has declined.

With every passing year, sustainable food security appears increasingly difficult to achieve.

A September 25, 2026, Vanguard editorial titled “Nigeria’s fertilizer use shortfall” highlighted another dimension of the problem. The Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security reportedly put national fertilizer consumption at about 18.6 kilogrammes per hectare, against the 50kg benchmark associated with the 2006 Abuja Declaration.

Twenty years after the declaration, Nigeria has yet to achieve even half of the benchmark. Without a substantial change, food security will remain an elusive goal.

MULTIDIMENSIONAL POVERTY NOW INTRACTABLE

“133 million Nigerians poor – NBS, November 18, 2022.”

In 1960, Nigeria’s population was below 60 million, while fewer than 30 per cent of Nigerians were categorised as poor. At the time, Nigeria was not yet a major oil-producing and exporting power. Its economy was considerably more diversified.

Decades of dependence on oil altered that economic structure, while the retreat from domestic food production contributed to food insecurity and import dependence.

The country’s decline from a middle-income economy in the early 1960s and 1970s to being described as the world’s poverty capital in 2018 was gradual. Although there have been occasional reversals, the underlying challenges have persisted.

The figures illustrate the scale of the problem: about 18 million Nigerians were living in poverty in the 1960s, compared with 133 million recorded in 2022 and an estimated 138 million in 2025.

The poverty situation remains a major challenge as Nigeria continues to adjust to the economic reforms introduced by the administration of President Bola Tinubu, particularly the removal of fuel subsidies.

RELATIVE DECLINE IN CRUDE PRODUCTION RANKING

“A bicycle … once rolling, retains its balance so long as it moves. Without movement, it collapses.”

The observation attributed to Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn offers an apt metaphor for Nigeria’s petroleum industry.

The 1970s and early 1980s represented some of the strongest years of Nigeria’s position in the global crude oil industry. The country was once among the world’s largest oil producers and exporters. Refineries were established to process domestic crude, while surplus production was exported.

Under military President Ibrahim Babangida, crude oil and petroleum products continued to be produced and exported. The system was moving.

The deterioration became more pronounced when regular turnaround maintenance of the refineries stopped. The consequences have been severe. Successive federal administrations have promised to revive the country’s refineries, but sustained domestic refining capacity remained elusive for decades.

The result was the deterioration of facilities that were once central to the country’s petroleum economy.

Nigeria’s position in global oil production and exports has also declined, while the country has at various times depended heavily on imported petroleum products. The emergence of the Dangote Refinery has introduced a significant new dimension to the country’s refining landscape.

HEALTH MANAGEMENT IS UNHEALTHY NATIONWIDE

“Health is wealth” remains one of the most enduring expressions of the importance of healthcare.

During the First Republic, regional governments placed considerable emphasis on public health, and General Hospitals provided treatment at relatively low cost.

The situation is markedly different today. Public healthcare facilities face shortages of equipment, personnel and funding, while patients frequently bear substantial costs for treatment.

Nigeria’s doctor-to-patient ratio remains extremely poor by international standards. The country’s healthcare challenges have persisted despite increased government revenues since 2023.

A February 10, 2026, report titled “Only N36m released from 2025 N216bn health capital budget – Minister” highlighted the gap between budgetary allocations and actual releases.

The release of only a fraction of appropriated capital funding inevitably affects healthcare delivery. Equipment cannot be replaced promptly, services cannot be adequately upgraded and staff morale suffers.

The consequences extend from Primary Health Centres to teaching hospitals.

Nigeria also remains one of the countries where life expectancy has recorded limited improvement over an extended period, underscoring the depth of the healthcare crisis.

A September 21, 2026, Vanguard report, “Why 2026 capital budget may not be implemented this year,” further raised questions about the pace of budget implementation.

If capital releases are deferred from one financial year to another, infrastructure and services that remain unaddressed today are likely to continue deteriorating.

HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT AND ITS CONSEQUENCES

“The devil finds work for idle hands.”

The saying has particular relevance in a country where hundreds of thousands of young people enter the labour market every year.

Nigerian secondary and tertiary institutions produce large numbers of graduates annually. Many complete the National Youth Service Corps programme only to confront limited employment opportunities.

At the same time, criminal networks are offering alternative sources of income.

Cybercrime, including “Yahoo” fraud, romance scams and transnational money laundering, has expanded among sections of the youth population in Nigeria and abroad. Drug trafficking, Ponzi schemes and other internet-enabled crimes have also proliferated.

Law enforcement agencies face significant challenges in keeping pace with the scale and sophistication of these activities. The extent of undetected crime remains difficult to establish.

More disturbing is the reported ability of some criminal networks to continue coordinating activities from within correctional facilities.

CORRUPTION DESTROYS EVERYTHING

“Some public officers take Nigeria’s money ‘every minute’,” EFCC Chairman Ola Olukoyede was quoted as saying by TheCable.

A September 28, 2026, PM News Nigeria report, “Corruption: EFCC uncovers officials with hundreds of houses, millions in assets,” further highlighted the scale of alleged illicit enrichment involving public officials.

When the chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission speaks about the alleged diversion of public resources, the claims deserve serious attention.

Questions surrounding public-sector corruption have persisted at federal, state and local-government levels. Annual reports from the Auditor-General of the Federation have repeatedly identified questionable transactions involving government ministries, departments and agencies.

Concerns have also been raised about institutions including the Central Bank of Nigeria, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, the Presidency, the Police and the Judiciary.

Where institutions responsible for managing public resources and enforcing the law are themselves accused of financial misconduct, the consequences for public confidence and national development are profound.

Nigeria’s debt has also risen sharply, with a significant portion of borrowed funds intended for infrastructure, poverty reduction and public welfare.

INCREASING DEBT BURDEN AND PERPETUAL POVERTY

“Yes, we will do anything for the poor man; anything, but, get off his back.”

Leo Tolstoy’s observation takes on renewed relevance against the backdrop of Nigeria’s growing debt burden.

A September 28, 2026, report stated that the Federal Government was seeking a fresh $1.5 billion World Bank loan.

The country’s national debt stood at N166.79 trillion at the end of June 2026, according to the figures cited.

The Debt Management Office had reported that Nigeria’s domestic and external debt stood at N121.67 trillion as of March 31, 2024. That represented an increase of N24.33 trillion from N97.34 trillion recorded in December 2023.

Nigeria’s increasing reliance on borrowing has become a major feature of government financing.

In 2004, former Finance Minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala played a central role in the process that led to Nigeria’s external debt relief under the Olusegun Obasanjo administration. Subsequent governments have nevertheless returned to heavy borrowing.

According to the figures cited in this analysis, the Tinubu administration has increased the national debt substantially since taking office.

The concern is not simply the size of the debt but the relationship between borrowing, public investment and the welfare of citizens. When rising debt is accompanied by persistent poverty and inadequate infrastructure, questions naturally arise over how effectively borrowed funds are being converted into productive national assets.

SECURITY CHALLENGES HAVE NEVER BEEN MORE DAUNTING

An estimated 3.7 million Nigerians were reported to have been internally displaced in March 2026.

Eight states accounted for about 3.341 million, or 91 per cent, of the displaced population cited in the figures: Borno, 1.711 million; Benue, 500,000; Zamfara, 276,000; Katsina, 244,000; Adamawa, 218,000; Yobe, 155,000; Sokoto, 118,000; and Kaduna, 117,000.

The figures, attributed to Vanguard on March 16, 2026, underline the scale of Nigeria’s displacement crisis.

Behind the millions of internally displaced persons are deaths, destroyed homes and livelihoods, separated families and disrupted futures.

Nigeria’s security environment has changed dramatically over the past decade. Armed groups, bandits, terrorists and kidnappers now operate across significant parts of the country, placing pressure on the state’s ability to protect communities.

Reports of mass killings, kidnappings and destruction of communities have become a recurring feature of the national news cycle.

The Tinubu administration inherited a severe security crisis from the previous administration. Although there have been successful rescue and security operations, the broader challenge remains unresolved.

With political activity increasingly dominating the national agenda ahead of the 2027 elections, concerns remain about whether sufficient attention will be devoted to governance and security.

ANNUAL BUDGET REDUCED TO A JOKE

A September 21, 2026, Vanguard report titled “Why 2026 capital budget may not be implemented this year” raised fresh concerns about Nigeria’s budget implementation.

The 2026 budget has faced concerns similar to those surrounding previous budgets, particularly the gap between appropriation and actual implementation.

The problems of budget preparation and implementation predate the Tinubu administration. The administration of former President Muhammadu Buhari also faced criticism over budget delays, extensions and poor capital-budget implementation.

In May 2023, questions surrounding government finances intensified after Buhari disclosed that N23.7 trillion had been withdrawn from the Central Bank of Nigeria without proper authorisation. Subsequent investigations cited a figure of about N30 trillion in withdrawals.

The circumstances surrounding the funds and their utilisation remain a major issue in discussions about public financial management.

The consequence of weak budget implementation is straightforward: projects approved on paper remain unfinished, while citizens continue to wait for infrastructure and public services.

NDLEA OVERWHELMED BY AN AVALANCHE OF ILLICIT DRUGS

When the National Drug Law Enforcement Agency was established under Decree 48 of 1989, Nigeria was widely regarded primarily as a transit route for illicit drugs, with relatively lower domestic consumption.

The situation has changed significantly.

Nigeria now faces challenges associated with the consumption, production and trafficking of illicit drugs. The National Drug Law Enforcement Agency regularly announces arrests involving large consignments of narcotics.

Authorities have also discovered large-scale drug-production facilities in the country, including multi-billion-naira operations.

Despite the efforts of the NDLEA, the scale of the drug problem remains substantial. Drug abuse has increasingly affected younger Nigerians, with reports indicating that the problem has reached some primary schools in parts of the country.

The challenge therefore extends beyond law enforcement to public health, education, family welfare and youth development.

PRESIDENT HAUNTED BY HIS US PAST

President Bola Tinubu’s repeated absence from the United Nations General Assembly has generated questions about Nigeria’s international representation.

A September 21, 2026, Daily Trust report was headlined, “Tinubu misses UNGA for the third time.”

Nigeria’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Jimoh Ibrahim, had earlier indicated that Tinubu would attend the 81st UN General Assembly and that arrangements had been made for him to sit near United States President Donald Trump.

Tinubu ultimately did not attend the gathering.

The United Nations General Assembly is one of the world’s largest annual diplomatic gatherings, bringing together leaders and representatives of the 193 UN member states. Governments use the occasion for bilateral meetings, diplomatic engagement and discussions on international issues.

Tinubu’s absence for a third consecutive year has therefore attracted attention, particularly because Nigerian presidents have traditionally used the gathering as an important platform for international diplomacy.

Various explanations have been offered for the president’s absence. One claim cited in public debate concerns his past legal issues in the United States and an alleged possibility of arrest should he travel there. Such claims require careful distinction between verified legal facts and political speculation.

Tinubu’s history in the United States has remained a subject of public discussion since before his presidency, while questions surrounding his past have periodically resurfaced in Nigerian political discourse.

Whatever the explanation for his absence from the UN General Assembly, the development has implications for Nigeria’s international engagement and the government’s foreign-policy messaging.

From food security and healthcare to unemployment, corruption, debt, insecurity, drug trafficking, budget implementation and international diplomacy, the challenges confronting Nigeria in its 66th year of independence are extensive.

The central question is whether the country can reverse these trends and translate its considerable human and natural resources into improved living standards, stronger institutions and more effective governance.