Obi will win on large voter turnout; low turnout favours Tinubu: Stears Poll

A large turnout of voters at the February 25 presidential election will pave the way for Peter Obi’s victory at the presidential election, says a poll conducted by Nigeria’s data intelligence provider, Stears.


The poll conducted on over 6,200 Nigerians placed Mr Obi of the Labour Party in the lead ahead of established candidates like Bola Tinubu of the ruling APC, Atiku Abubakar of the PDP and Rabiu Kwankwaso of the NNPP.

Mr Obi had 27 per cent of over 6,200 citizens declaring their support for his presidential ambition, Mr Tinubu had 15 per cent and Mr Abubakar had 12 per cent.

However, 37 per cent kept mute regarding their choice of candidates, leaving ambiguity as to which presidential andidate they would vote for.

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Stears believes Mr Tinubu has the largest percentage of silent voters after the data intelligence provider assigned the undeclared voters to a candidate they were very likely to support.

Still, Stears states that Mr Obi had a sizable supporter base and that his election triumph depended on how many people came out to vote on electionday.

According to the poll using a high turnout scenario, Mr Obi would get 41 per cent of the votes, Mr Tinubu 31 per cent and Mr Abubakar 20 per cent.

“Even after including silent voters, Peter Obi holds a comfortable lead. In essence, the Stears electoral poll and prediction model affirms that Peter Obi is by far the most popular and desired candidate for the 2023 Presidential Elections,” said Stears in its report.

It added, “Having said that, to get a more realistic prediction of the outcome of the race, we can apply the same high and low turnout scenarios to our model predictions. When we do so, Peter Obi once again emerges triumphant in the high turnout scenario.”

“In the more realistic low turnout scenario, something significant happens: Tinubu usurps Obi,” the poll pointed out.

Mr Tinubu would take the lead by 39 per cent, followed by Mr Obi with 32 per cent and Mr Abubakar with 22 per cent.

Consequently, the Stears electoral poll stated that “Peter Obi is Nigeria’s most popular presidential candidate and should win the presidential ticket as long as Nigerians follow through on their stated intent to vote. But, if voter turnout looks similar to 2019, then Tinubu will win the election.”

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